Shipping protection apps ask your customer for a fee at checkout and promise to cover a lost, stolen or damaged parcel. Whether that is worth it depends on two numbers the apps do not give you: how often a parcel from China actually goes missing, and what one missing parcel costs you.

Measured on tracked parcels with a first carrier scan from May to July 2026, outside the UK, about 1 in 120 stopped short of a delivered scan after the carrier had them. On a $40 order, that works out to roughly 12 to 34 cents of expected loss per order, depending on whether you reship or refund.

This guide covers:

• How often parcels from China end without a delivered scan, and what actually happened to them
• Which of those a protection plan usually pays for, and which it does not
• What one problem parcel costs you: reship, refund or a lost chargeback
• The per-order maths to compare against a protection fee
• When protection could still make sense, and what to do instead

How often parcels from China go missing: about 2 in 100 show no delivered scan

Across all destinations, 2.0% of parcels with a first carrier scan from May to July 2026 never showed a delivered scan, measured at least 74 days later. By country:

• United States: 1.7%
• Australia: 1.5%
• Canada: 2.4%
• New Zealand: 1.1%, on a smaller sample

The UK is the exception. Its tracking often stops at the handover to the local delivery company, so about 1 in 6 UK parcels show no delivered scan even though most of them arrived. Treat a missing UK delivered scan as a tracking gap, not a loss.

"No delivered scan" is not the same as "lost". Outside the UK it was about 17.5 parcels per 1,000, split across five different problems.

What actually happened to the parcels with no delivered scan

Per 1,000 parcels, outside the UK:

• 6.4 went quiet with the local carrier. The parcel reached the destination country and was handed over, then the feed stopped. Some of these arrived without the scan reaching the tracking. This is the classic "lost" claim.
• 5.4 were returned to the sender or were on the way back. Usually a bad address, a refused parcel or an unclaimed pickup.
• 3.7 never got a carrier scan. A label was created, but the carrier never had the parcel. That is a problem on the sending side, not in transit.
• 1.8 had a failed delivery attempt or exception. The driver tried, or the carrier flagged a problem.
• 0.2 went quiet in transit or customs.

Add up the three groups where the carrier had the parcel and it then went missing, and you get about 8.4 per 1,000, or about 1 in 120. That is an upper bound on real loss after shipping, because part of the first group did arrive.

Which of those a protection plan pays for

Protection plans differ, but the claim types and exclusions on merchant help pages repeat:

• Lost: usually covered, after a waiting period with no tracking update. This is the 6.4 per 1,000 that went quiet with the local carrier, plus most of the in-transit group.
• Stolen: tracking shows delivered, the customer says it never came. Usually covered. Your tracking data cannot show how often this happens, because the parcel looks delivered.
• Damaged: usually covered with photos.
• Wrong address or refused: commonly excluded. Most of the 5.4 returned parcels sit here. The guide to address problems on parcels from China shows how to catch them before the label prints.
• Never shipped: not a delivery problem at all, so not covered. The 3.7 per 1,000 with only a label are yours to fix with your supplier.
• Customs holds: commonly excluded.

So under half of the 17.5 per 1,000 look like the kind a plan pays out on. The rest still cost you money, protection or not.

What one problem parcel costs you

Take an example order: the customer pays $40, and the product plus shipping costs you $14. On a delivered order you keep $26.

• Reship: you send a second product, so you pay the $14 again and keep the sale. Cost: $14.
• Refund: you give back the $40 and you have already spent $14. Against a delivered order, the whole $40 is gone.
• Lose a chargeback: the customer goes to the bank instead of you. You lose the $40, and Shopify Payments charges a chargeback fee on top: $15 in the US, £10 in the UK, $25 AUD in Australia and €15 in most of the EU. The fee comes back only if you win. Cost: $55 in the US.

A reship is the cheapest way to close a lost parcel and a chargeback the most expensive, so a fast answer to a "where is my order" email saves the most money. The guide to proof of delivery for parcels from China covers what wins a dispute when you do get one.

The per-order maths: expected loss against the fee

Spread the cost of the missing parcels across every order, on the same $40 example:

• Reship every parcel lost after shipping (about 0.84% of orders × $14): about $0.12 per order
• Refund every parcel lost after shipping (0.84% × $40): about $0.34 per order
• Refund every parcel with no delivered scan, including returns and unshipped ones (1.75% × $40): about $0.70 per order

Protection fees vary by app and order value; take about $1 on a $40 order as an example. On these numbers the fee is more than the loss it covers, even in the worst case. An insurer also has to cover theft claims, fraud and its own costs, so that is not overcharging.

What it does mean for a store shipping from China on tracked lines: if the shopper pays the fee, it is a margin line for whoever holds the risk. If you pay it yourself, it could cost you more than the parcels it covers.

When protection could still make sense

The maths changes in a few cases, so it might be right for you if:

• Your order value is high. On a $200 order, one lost parcel is a bigger hit, and the fee usually scales with the order.
• Theft is a real problem in your market. "Delivered but not received" claims do not show in tracking data, and a plan covers them where your data cannot.
• The shopper pays and you keep the fee. Self-insured apps let the store collect the fee and pay claims from it. On the rates above, that pool could run a surplus, but you take on the claims handling.

What a late parcel costs, and why it is the bigger problem

Missing parcels are not where most of the money goes. About 2 in 100 delivered parcels arrived more than 30 days after the order, more than the 1 in 120 that went missing after shipping. A store that refunds at day 30 pays out on parcels that were about to arrive, and a customer who files a dispute first costs the full $55.

A clear late-parcel rule does more than protection here: check the tracking and the local carrier at day 30, reship or refund at day 45. The guide to a shipping policy for a store that ships from China has the wording and the numbers behind it.

How to check it for your own store

1. Export three months of orders that are at least six weeks old, with the tracking number, last tracking status and delivered date.
2. Count the share with no delivered scan, then split it: returned, never scanned by the carrier, went quiet after the carrier had it.
3. Price each group at your own reship cost and order value. That is your expected loss per order.
4. Compare it with the protection fee you pay or charge, per order.
5. Add your "item not received" chargeback rate. If it is above your missing-parcel rate, the problem is speed of reply, not loss.

What to do

• Measure your own missing-parcel rate before buying protection
• Split "no delivered scan" into its causes, because only some of them are claims
• Reship fast when a parcel is lost after shipping: it is the cheapest outcome
• Fix addresses and unshipped orders at the source, since protection rarely covers them
• Write a late-parcel rule with a day count, so slow parcels do not become refunds or disputes
• If you offer protection, decide who keeps the fee and who handles the claims

How we handle this at Commercive

Commercive is your all in one sourcing and fulfilment partner. We ship from China on frontier lines like YunExpress, Yanwen and 4PX, and every parcel's scans show in our dashboard from the first carrier scan to the delivered scan, so you can see which parcels are late, returned or quiet before the customer writes in, and work out your own missing-parcel rate instead of guessing it.

Our measured delivery times by line and country are public on our shipping status page.

If you're currently running a brand, just give us the product and your daily order volume. We'll get you a quote within the next 24 hours to hold up against what you're paying today.

How we measured this. Every parcel shipped from stores we fulfil from China with a first carrier scan between 1 May and 31 July 2026, all lines and all destinations, test stores excluded, measured on 13 October 2026 so every parcel had at least 74 days. "Delivered" means a delivered scan reached our tracking, which undercounts arrivals where a local carrier does not pass it back. The per-1,000 split excludes the UK, whose tracking often stops at the handover. Order values and costs are an example, not our data. Chargeback fees are from Shopify's help centre; protection plan terms are summarised from app listings and merchant help pages, all read on 13 October 2026.

Is shipping protection worth it for parcels from China?

It depends on your order value and who pays. On tracked parcels from China, about 1 in 120 went missing after the carrier had them. On a $40 order, that is about 12 to 34 cents of expected loss per order, often less than a protection fee.

How often do parcels from China get lost?

About 2 in 100 parcels with a first carrier scan from May to July 2026 never showed a delivered scan. Fewer than half of those went missing after the carrier had them; most of the rest were returned to the sender or never shipped.

Does shipping protection cover a wrong address?

Commonly not. Wrong addresses entered at checkout, refused parcels and customs holds are frequent exclusions on merchant help pages. Check the terms of the plan you use.

Should I reship or refund a lost parcel?

On an example $40 order with $14 of product and shipping cost, a reship costs $14 and keeps the sale, while a refund loses the whole $40. A lost chargeback costs more, $55 in the US with the $15 fee.

Can I keep the shipping protection fee?

Some apps are self-insured: the store collects the fee and pays claims itself. On a low missing-parcel rate that pool could run a surplus, but the store handles the claims.