A customer says the parcel never came. Whether you keep the money depends on one line in the tracking: a delivered scan, with a date and an address that matches the order. Without it, the bank or PayPal usually sides with the buyer.

On parcels shipped from China between May and July 2026, 97.9% reached a delivered scan. The catch is timing: 4 in 10 of the parcels that went on to arrive still had no delivered scan on day 14 after the order, and a card dispute can open from day 15.

This guide covers:

• What evidence the dispute rules actually ask for, on cards, Shopify Payments and PayPal
• How often a parcel from China ends with that evidence, measured by destination
• When the delivered scan appears, against the day a dispute can open
• What the parcels with no delivered scan look like, and which of them you can still prove
• What to do before and after a dispute lands

What counts as proof of delivery

Every payment route asks for roughly the same thing, with different strictness.

• Card chargebacks (Visa reason 13.1, "merchandise not received"). The strongest evidence is carrier tracking showing delivered, with a date, to the address the customer gave at checkout. Signature confirmation helps but is rarely available on a parcel from China.
• Shopify Payments. Shopify attaches the shipping date, carrier and tracking number automatically. You add the delivered status and show the address matches. For some carriers the tracking PDF includes the carrier's delivery photo. You usually get 7 to 21 days to respond once the chargeback is filed.
• PayPal disputes. PayPal's seller protection generally requires online tracking showing delivered, with the date and an address that matches the order. Above USD 750, it asks for signature confirmation. Proof of postage and in-transit scans do not count, and the protection covers disputes opened in PayPal, not chargebacks filed with the buyer's card issuer.

The common thread: "in transit" is not evidence. A parcel that is fine but still moving loses the same way as a parcel that is lost.

How often tracking reaches a delivered scan

Measured on every parcel with a first carrier scan from 3 May to 31 July 2026, all lines and destinations, checked on 2 October so each one had at least 63 days to arrive:

• All destinations: 97.9% got a delivered scan
• US: 98.2%
• Australia: 98.5%
• Canada: 97.9%
• EU, 15 countries together: 94.8%
• UK: 81.8%

The UK number needs reading carefully. Almost every UK parcel without a delivered scan shows "with the local carrier" as its last status. The parcel was handed to the UK delivery company, and that company's delivered scan never came back to the first carrier's page. The parcel most likely arrived. You just cannot show it from the tracking you have.

That is the practical point for disputes: a parcel can arrive and still leave you with no evidence.

When the delivered scan appears, and when a dispute can open

Under Visa's rules, if you did not give the customer a delivery date, the cardholder has to wait 15 calendar days from the purchase before disputing for non-receipt. They then have up to 120 days.

Here is how many of the parcels that went on to arrive already had their delivered scan, counted from the customer's order:

• By day 14: 60%
• By day 21: 88%
• By day 30: 98%
• By day 45: 99.4%

The median order to delivered scan was 12.8 days. 9 in 10 had it within 22 days and 99 in 100 within about 37.

So an early dispute is usually a timing problem, not a lost parcel. If the customer files on day 16 and the parcel lands on day 19, the delivered scan exists by the time you respond. Shopify gives you 7 to 21 days to send evidence. Waiting a few days before you answer, while the scan arrives, can be the difference between losing and winning.

The delivery date you show moves the clock

The 15-day wait only applies when no delivery date was given. If your product page or confirmation email promises "delivered in 7 to 10 days", the customer can treat day 10 as the expected date and dispute after it.

A short promise does two things at once: it creates the "where is my order" email and it opens the dispute window earlier, at a point where 4 in 10 parcels have no delivered scan. A promise built on the slower figure could cut both. Test it on your own store before changing every page.

The 2.1% with no delivered scan

Of every 1,000 parcels in the cohort, about 21 never showed a delivered scan. Their last status splits like this:

• About 9 stopped with the local carrier. Handed over in the destination country, then the feed went quiet. Many of these arrived. Look up the local carrier's own tracking number before you treat it as lost.
• About 5 were returned or on the way back. Usually a bad address, a refused parcel or an unclaimed pickup. Those go back to the sender and can often be reshipped or refunded on your terms before a dispute.
• About 4 never left the sender. Label created, nothing after. That is a stock or handover problem on the sending side, and there is no evidence to give because there was no shipment.
• About 2 had a failed delivery attempt or exception. The driver tried. The customer often does not know a card was left.
• Fewer than 1 stopped in transit or customs.

Only the first group is a pure evidence problem. The other four are real delivery problems you can see in the tracking before the customer complains.

Photo proof of delivery is a bonus, not the rule

Some local carriers take a photo at the door and pass it back. Shopify can include that photo in the dispute PDF for some carriers. On parcels from China it depends on the destination and the local carrier, and most of the time it is not there. Treat a photo as extra evidence when it exists. The delivered scan, the date and the matching address are what you can count on.

How to check how many of your disputes you could win

You need your last three months of orders and their tracking.

1. Export orders with the order date, tracking number and the date of the delivered scan, if any.
2. Count the share with no delivered scan at all. That is the share you could not defend today.
3. For the ones with a delivered scan, count how many had it after day 14. That is your early-dispute window.
4. Split both by country. A country with a low delivered share is usually a tracking handover problem, so find the local carrier's number.
5. Pull your last ten "not received" disputes and check when the delivered scan landed against when the dispute opened.

What to do

• Send the tracking link at shipping, and again when it lands in the country. Customers who can see the parcel moving might be less likely to dispute.
• Answer "where is my order" before the bank does. A reply on day 12 with the current status might head off a dispute on day 16.
• Do not rush the evidence. If a dispute opens on a parcel still in transit, use the response window and submit once the delivered scan exists.
• Save the local carrier's tracking number. For parcels that hand over to a new number, that page is often the only one with the delivered scan.
• Promise the slower date. It might reduce both tickets and early disputes.
• Act on returns and failed attempts the same day. Those are visible in the tracking before the customer complains, and a quick reship or refund costs less than a chargeback fee.

How we handle this at Commercive

Commercive is your all in one sourcing and fulfilment partner. We ship from China on frontier lines like YunExpress, Yanwen and 4PX, which scan the parcel at every handover.

Every parcel we ship shows its full scan history in our dashboard, including the delivered scan and its date, so the evidence for a dispute is in one place instead of across carrier sites. Our measured delivery times by line and country are public on our shipping status page. If a parcel has gone quiet, our guide to what each tracking status means tells you when to act, and how long shipping from China takes breaks down where the days go.

If you're currently running a brand, just give us the product and your daily order volume. We'll get you a quote within the next 24 hours to hold up against what you're paying today.

How we measured this. Every parcel we shipped with a first carrier scan between 3 May and 31 July 2026, across all our lines and destinations, measured on 2 October 2026 so each parcel had at least 63 days. "Got a delivered scan" means a delivered scan reached our tracking; it is a floor on how many parcels arrived, because some local carriers never pass the delivered scan back. Days are calendar days from the customer's order to the first delivered scan. The last-status split covers parcels with no delivered scan. Dispute rules are summarised from Visa's dispute rules as published by chargeback providers, Shopify's help centre and PayPal's seller protection terms, as of October 2026; check your own processor's current terms.

What counts as proof of delivery for an item not received dispute?

Carrier tracking that shows the parcel as delivered, with the delivery date and an address that matches the one the customer gave at checkout. A signature or delivery photo makes it stronger. In-transit scans and proof of postage do not count.

Can a customer open a chargeback before the parcel arrives?

Yes. Under Visa's rules a non-receipt dispute can open 15 days after the purchase if no delivery date was given, or after the delivery date you promised. On parcels from China, about 4 in 10 that went on to arrive still had no delivered scan on day 14.

What if the tracking stopped after the parcel reached the destination country?

Look for the local carrier's tracking number on the tracking page and check it on that carrier's own site. The first carrier's page often stops at the handover, while the local carrier's page shows the delivered scan you need.

Does PayPal need a signature for parcels from China?

PayPal's seller protection generally asks for signature confirmation only on orders of USD 750 or more. Below that, online tracking showing delivered, with the date and a matching address, is what it looks for.

How long do I have to respond to a Shopify chargeback?

Usually 7 to 21 days after it is filed, shown on the chargeback in your Shopify admin. If the parcel is still moving, you can use part of that window to wait for the delivered scan before you submit.